Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, September 29th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to start the week with a small improvement in rates. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 7 points and the Nasdaq up 207 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.14%), which should allow this morning’s rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Friday’s early pricing.

8/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.14%

7

Dow

46,239

207

NASDAQ

22,691

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today, the only day of the week without at least one release. We have at least five Fed-member speeches happening today, but none of them stand out as likely to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us six monthly economic reports for the markets to digest, with two of them being considered extremely influential to the financial and mortgage markets.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

Relevant economic releases begin tomorrow when September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, is expected to announce a reading of 96.0. This would be a decline from August’s 97.4, indicating surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations last month than they are this month. Waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending, restricting economic growth. Therefore, a lower than expected reading tomorrow will be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

We also have a large number of scheduled speeches by current Fed members again this week. Of particular interest are Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's speeches early tomorrow morning and Friday afternoon because they have topics related to monetary policy. There are a couple more that could draw a reaction in the markets also. Since this month’s FOMC meeting, these speeches have given us conflicting opinions about what the Fed may do over the remaining two meetings this year. This week is likely to be the same.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the importance of the governmental Employment report, assuming the potential shutdown doesn’t delay its release. Wednesday also may be a particularly active day because the ISM manufacturing index is considered a major release and won’t be affected if the government shuts down. We can expect to see a fair amount of movement in rates this week, so it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Axiom Lending Group

CAL DRE 01446821, 01446822, NMLS 236506, 237600
NMLS Consumer Access
Apple Valley, CA 92307

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